Soccer
Botafogo and São Paulo are tied and the decision of Flamengo's possible opponent will be decided next week
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In fourth place in the Brasileirão, studies show how many points Flamengo has to score if it wants to be Brazilian champion
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Sharing attention with two other competitions, Flamengo is still alive in the fight for the Brasileirão title. In fourth place, Mengão sees a packed Botafogo and Fortaleza in front of them, and Palmeiras, who only have the Brazilian ahead of them. Thus, due to studies by UFMG, Mengão already knows how many points they have to score to overcome these opponents.
According to the university's statistical study, the average to have a great chance of winning the Brasileirão title is between 70 and 80 points. Since, upon reaching 70 points, the percentage of being champion goes from 50%, 72 points, 70%, and upon reaching 75 points, 90%.
If you want to have a 100% chance of being champion, Flamengo at that moment would have to reach 86 points. For comparison purposes, Palmeiras reached the title in 2023 with 70 points, 16 less.
Now in 2024, to reach the 86 points that give the mathematical “certainty” of the title, Flamengo will simply have have to win all the remaining games, reaching exactly the magic number.
The last one to surpass 86 points in the Brasileirão was Flamengo
The high number of points to be won to guarantee the title This season, it is due to the great dispute in the Brasileirão. With 5/6 teams at the top of the table, the chances are divided and force those at the front to not stop scoring.
However, the last team to reach such a large number of points, and Until it surpassed that of the 2024 statistics, it was precisely Flamengo.
In that magical year of 2019, Jorge Jesus' Mengão reached the mark of 90 points, a milestone in the history of Brazilian football. With a 16 point advantage over vice-president, Santos, Rubro-Negro reached the title of that edition with 28 wins, six draws and four defeats.
The teams play the first game of the quarterfinals at 7 p.m.
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Tite defined Flamengo and announced the 11 starters who will face Peñarol, this Thursday, at Maracanã, at 7pm. De la Cruz returns to the starting lineup in place of Léo Ortiz, and Alex Sandro and Plata were retained. The duel with the Uruguayans is the first between the teams in the quarter-finals of the Copa Conmebol Libertadores.
Follow the Red and Black lineup:Rossi, Varela, Fabrício Bruno, Léo Pereira and Alex Sandro; Pulgar, De la Cruz, Gerson and Arrascaeta; Plata and Bruno Henrique.
Alex Sandro and Plata, debutants in last Sunday's classic, remain in the team after having good performances in the draw against Vasco. Gabigol is now out of the relationship due to fibrosis in the posterior muscle of his right thigh. Flamengo, in a statement, reported that the athlete did not suffer any injury in the region. Check it out:
"The Clube de Regatas do Flamengo informs that the athlete Gabriel Barbosa underwent tests that did not diagnose an injury to the posterior muscle of his right thigh. However, the Technical Committee opted for precaution and did not list him for the duel against Peñarol due to fibrosis in the region. Gabi is handed over to physiotherapists and physical trainers for the series of decisive games of the season."
Match starts at 7pm this Thursday
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Flamengo faces Peñarol (URU) in the first game of the CONMEBOL Libertadores quarter-finals and, here, you can watch the broadcast, live, with 2h30 of pre-game, interviews, the team's arrival at Maracanã and everything more.
Follow the match live here:
Rubro-Negro is increasingly distant from the fight in the Brasileirão
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In a classic valid for the 26th round of the Brasileirão, Flamengo suffered a draw at Maracanã against Vasco, conceding a goal at the end of the match. Despite a good performance, Mengão only gained one point and saw their chances of winning the Brazilian Championship diminish even further.
Leader of the championship at one point in the first round, Flamengo fell in the standings due to a series of stumbles and a bad start on the return, stagnating in fourth place. Currently, with the focus clearly on the cup competitions, Rubro-Negro has only a 4% chance of winning the Brasileirão, according to a statistical survey by 'InfoBola'.
In the lead of the odds, Botafogo appears with a 60% chance of being champion, followed by Palmeiras with 17% and Fortaleza with 16%.
Not long ago More than 15 days, before the clashes against Corinthians and Vasco, Flamengo was in third place, with significantly greater chances of winning the title. At that time, according to GE data, Mengão had almost four times more chances of lifting the cup than it does now, around 15%.
While Fortaleza's chance, which was leader, fell to half, the odds of Botafogo, which currently leads, have doubled compared to the InfoBola study.
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